Target Futures
Weather Overtaking Other Influences on the Grains
A higher start is expected in all pits today following overnight gains on wetter corn belt weather. The latest forecast calls for up to 2.5" of rain over 80% or more of the belt between today and Saturday, on top of up to 1.5" of moisture in the western half of the belt during the last 24 hours. Additionally, the 6-10 day outlook calls for above normal rain. Many areas are still way too wet and all this additional rain will increase renewed flood potential. The southwest winter wheat belt will see only modest, scattered rain the next several days along with hot temps.
Argentina wheat areas will be mostly dry until Sun-Mon, when welcome rain is forecast. Australia will see some beneficial rain in the western wheat areas but the eastern part of the belt will be dry the next 7 days, stressing the crop there.
The rest of the news is relatively unimportant compared with the weather: Crude oil is a little lower ahead of the weekly oil stocks report at 9:30 this am, Central time. The $ is a bit lower too ahead of the big Federal Reserve Board policy announcement at 1:15 this afternoon, Central time. The Fed anouncement could impact the grain market tonight and tomorrow. Egypt bought 150,00 tonnes of wheat, mostly Russian origin, today. The benchmark grade of Thai rice fell 3% vs last week on slow demand, trading at $770 a tonne today. Dalian, China grain futures were mixed today. The Argentine farmers strike appears over for now but the situation could change at any time and bears watching.
Texas Governor Perry again asked the EPA for a waiver on the ethanol mandate with a decision not expected until late next month. Other states would like a waiver also, which would be negative for ethanol demand and corn prices, if only psychologically. The cash bean market at the Gulf is sharply higher today as supplies tighten due to slow shipment of barges to the Gulf on the flood swollen Mississippi River.
Despite expected early strength, I would stick with the short side today. ---Vic Lespinasse
Bullish Factors Emerging; Not Yet Impacting the Grains
Crude oil is higher, the $ lower and Dalian, China grain futures are up with the exception of bean oil, which ended a little lower, a bullish combination overall for our grain market.
The forecast for the Midwest is wetter than indicated yesterday with widespread rain between now and Saturday of up to 2.5" and coverage of roughly 70-75%. Given all this, one would expect a strong market this am but overnight prices were barely higher, just 2 1/2 better in beans with corn fractionally better and wheat fractionally lower. This surprisingly weak performance in the face of generally bullish news is surprising. Maybe the market knows something we don't.
The weekly crop progress report was mostly neutral with winter wheat declining 1% in the good to excellent catagories to 46%, as expected. Corn improved 2% to 59%, also as expected. Beans were just 1% better to 57%, a bit less than expected. Bean planting was slower than expected at 91% complete vs 96% average and emergence was only 82%vs 93% on average. Spring wheat improved to 72% good to excellent vs 67% last week, benefiting from ongoing favorable weather. Winter wheat harvesting remains slow, just 22% done vs 32% average. The wet weather that has delayed harvesting is forecast to remain in place the rest of the week, keeping harvest progress slow and increasing the risk of quality losses and disease. The USDA said 8% of Iowa's corn and 7% of Iowa's beans have been flooded. They also said 11% of Iowa's corn and 12% of Iowa's beans need replanting.
The Senate will resume hearings today on legislation to restrict speculation in the commodities markets, especially the energy sector. It is feared this could disrupt the functioning of the market, driving away liquidity by forcing trading overseas. The bulls fear a big sell off in prices as well.
In other news, Japan bought 152,000 tonnes of US wheat. Malaysian palm oil fell 55 ringgit today. No news out of Argentina this am but the strike seems to be winding down with beans moving to market. Of course, this situation could change again quickly so traders will keep watching for fresh developments. Argentina's wheat belt will be mostly dry the rest of this week and more rain will be needed there soon. Australia will see good rain chances in the west Fri-Sat but little rain is forecast for eastern wheat areas thenext several days. More rain is needed across all the Australian wheat areas soon or production prospects will suffer. StatsCanada estimated all wheat seeding at 25.1 million acres, in line with the trade ideas. Durum wheat acreage was put at 6.1 million vs the average guess of 5.9 million. Canola acreage was 15.8 million, 1 million acres more than expected. Oats was 4.4 million acres, just below the 4.6 million expected.
I would give the bears another chance today and stick with the short side. ---Vic Lespinasse
It's All About the Weather
A lower start is likely in all pits following overnight losses and a stronger $ this am. Dalian, China grain futures are mostly lower with the exception of corn, which is a little better. Crude oil has been two sided so far this am, currently trading a little lower but not enough to be a market factor currently in the grains.
The main influence this am is -- guess what? The weather, as usual. At least for now, the worst of the flooding seems to be over with the Mississippi River receding, having crested at a lower level than expected in some areas, such as St Louis.
Most traders think the weekly crop ratings report this afternoon will show some improvement in the good to excellent condition of the corn and beans. Weekend rains were largely absent from the western corn belt while the east had scattered .25-1" amounts with modest coverage. The forecast this week calls for scattered showers of up to .75" in the west with 45% coverage Tue-Thur and up to 1.5" by Friday. The east will see scattered rain late tomorrow into Wed, up to .5" with 55% coverage followed by up to 1.5" Fri-Sat. The 6-10 day calls for above normal rain in the northwest with below normal amounts in the southeast. This forecast is normal and doesn't threaten the return of widespread rain or flooding so it is considered bearish for corn and beans. The southwest winter wheat belt had scattered, light rain over the weekend with up to 1" expected today covering about 2/3 of the belt. More unwelcome, harvest delaying rain is possible Thur-Fri but the 6-10 calls for below normal rain.
The Argentine wheat belt will be mostly dry this week with temperatures rising, increasing the need for rain again soon as rain last week will be used up quickly by higher temps this week. Rain is likely in western Australia's wheat belt late this week but little is forecast in the eastern half of the country, increasing the need for more moisture there soon. China's Agriculture Minister says China's summer crop will likely exceed 120 million tonnes, up over 2.5 million tonnes vs last summer. India's Farm Minister says their wheat harvest will be around 78 million tonnes, a record.
We switched to the short side in all pits on the close Friday and will remain this way today, with the opening call around 15-18 lower wheat, 7-10 down corn and 10-12 off beans. Stick with the short side at least today and tomorrow. ---Vic Lespinasse
Informa Acreage Estimates Out Today
A slightly lower start is expected this am, 1 in wheat, 1-2 corn and 5-7 beans.
There was some unwelcome rain yesterday in Iowa, up to 2" in some areas, but the rest of the midwest was dry. Scattered showers, up to 1", are forecast today through Monday in the midwest. The next chance of significant rain is Tue-Thur in the west and Wed-Th in the east with up to 1.5 forecast in the west but only up to .75" in the east. None of this rain will be welcome but it probably isn't enough to start renewed flooding in most areas. The Mississippi River is expected to crest around St Louis Sunday. So far, 23 levees have been breached and 25 more are in danger. However, judging by how the market acted yesterday and overnight, the worst of the weather is behind us and the forecast currently is benign, which is to say bearish pricewise. The southwest winter wheat belt will see continued rain the next several days, up to 1.5" with yet further rain Mon-Thur next week. All this moisture will slow winter wheat harvesting and could cause some quality problems.
The big Australian wheat producing state of New South Wales had beneficial rain yesterday in the south, up to 3/4". Lingering rain is forecast for this same area the next few days but much more widespread rain is needed to prevent further declines in Australia's wheat production prospects this season. Dry Argentine wheat areas had much needed rains the last 24 hours of up to 1". More is needed here also to boost production prospects.
Remember, Informa estimates acreage at 10:30 this am, central time. The USDA announced they will resurvey Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota, Missouri and Wisconsin next week and incorporate these acreage numbers in their big June 30 acreage report. They also said they will conduct another acreage survey in July and publish the results in the August 12 production report. These two reports could have a huge impact on the market. Look for another volatile day.
Bearish Weather Factors May Start Grains Lower
A lower start is expected in all pits this am, 5 in wheat and beans with corn off around 10. Weekly export sales were good for wheat, 538,000 tonnes. Corn was in line, 343,000 tonnes, as was meal, 94,000 tonnes. Bean sales were slow, 171,000 tonnes, as was oil, just 1000 tonnes and rice, 15,000 tonnes. Egypt was in the market for optional origin wheat but they cancelled this am. Crude oil is higher but so is the $, giving mixed signals to our grain market. Dalian, China grain futures were lower except for corn, which was a little higher.
Argentine farmers have extended their strike at least until tomorrow night and a further extension is possible. The longer this strike continues, the more switching of export business in beans, meal and oil from Argentine origin to US/Brazilian origin is likely, which is bullish for our bean complex, of course. China is out of the corn export business this year and there is a report, that I haven't had a chance to read yet, that China could import as much as 10 million tonnes of corn a year within 2 years, which would be very bullish for our corn market, obviously.
There is some rain in the generally dry Argentine wheat belt today but mostly dry weather is forecast for the following several days, keeping the need for additional moisture growing. Australia saw some much needed rain over the last 24 hours in their biggest wheat producing state, New South Wales, but mostly dry weather is forecast the next week or so. A lot more rain is needed very soon to avert furrther cuts in estimated wheat production this season.
The latest report from the Army Corp of Engineers this am says 23 Mississippi River levees have been breached and two dozen more are in danger of being breached, flooding many more thousands of acres of farmland.
The US southwest winter wheat belt will remain wet the next several days. Up to 1" fell yesterday and rain today through Saturday will drop up to another 1" with additional rain forecast Sun-Tue. All this moisture will delay harvesting of the crop. The midwest was mostly dry yesterday and more of the same is likely today although some scattered rain is forecast in Missouri and Neb. Light, scattered rain is expected over the weekend into early next week in the midwest but nothing significant until around Tuesday, when up to 1" is expected. The 6-10 day calls for above normal rain in the western half of the belt with below normal rain in the eastern half. Generally, the forecast is bearish with warmer and drier weather in the picture for the next week or longer. To keep the grain rally going, weather extremes are needed.
We are already at elevated levels, at or near all time highs in corn and beans, and without any more large scale weather problems, prices are likely to set back from here. Having said that, I would still give the bulls the benefit of the doubt for now. We have big profits on the long side so I would stick with the long side. ---Vic Lespinasse
Endangered Levees May Cause More Farmland Flooding
A mixed start is the early call this am following mixed overnight prices but I think we will be a bit better across the floor on the opening bell. Wheat is called 2-4 up, corn 3-4 better and beans down 1-3. Dalian, China grain futures were higher except for corn, which was a shade lower. Crude oil is higher but so is the $.
Argentina's president asked Argentina's Congress to ratify the higher bean export tax at the heart of the dispute with farmers, a move which could lessen tensions between the farmers and the government. This would place a cloak of legitimacy, via legislative action rather than presidential decree, on the higher tax. Early reactions from the farmers leaders is somewhat positive and they are scheduled to meet today to decide what to do next as their current strike ends tonight. There are still big pro- and anti-government rallies set for today so the situation remains fluid.
The US Army Corp of Engineers says numerous levees along the Mississippi are in danger of being breached, which would flood hundreds of thousands of acres of prime farmland. One levee was already breached, flooding farmland on the Illinois side of the Mississippi River across from Burlington, Ia.
The midwest has been mostly dry the last 24 hours but scattered rain is likely in the western half of the belt starting tonight and continuing tomorrow, bringing up to 1" of unwelcome rain before mostly dry weather returns for the weekend. The eastern half of the belt will see mostly dry weather until up to .75" of scattered rains fall Fri-Sat. The 6-10 day calls for above normal rain in the west and below normal rain in the east. The southwest winter wheat belt will see harvest delaying rain move across much of the region the rest of the week following similar wet weather yesterday. Up to 1.5" could fall between today and Friday alone. The 6-10 day does call for drier weather, which will be welcome.
Scattered rain is likely in the dry Argentine wheat belt the next two days. Australia will see scattered rain in the east today and tomorrow but much more rain will be needed to prevent a further decline in the outlook for the wheat crop there.
I would continue to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt and stick with the long side in all pits again today. ---Vic Lespinasse
Crop Progress and Weather Remain on the Side of the Bulls
A mixed start is expected this am, 2-4 down in wheat, steady corn and 3-5 up in beans, similar to overnight moves. The Dalian, China grain futures market was lower today. Crude oil is currently lower while the $ is slightly lower at this early hour also, all of which is negative for our grain market.
The weekly crop ratings yesterday afternoon showed winter wheat in 47% good to excellent condition, unchanged from the previous week. Corn was 57% good to excellent vs 60% the previous week and beans were 56% vs 57% last week. Neither corn nor beans declined as much as the trade had expected, roughly 5% in corn and 2-3% in beans. Spring wheat improved its good to excellent condition, now 67% vs 63% before. Winter wheat harvested reached 19% vs 16% average. Bean planting is now 84% done against 94% average with emergence 71% vs 86% average.
The Iowa state report in yesterday's weekly crop progress report shows 9% of the corn acreage and 8% of the bean acreage are flooded and need replanting. This equals 1.2 millon acres of Iowa corn fields and 784,000 acres of Iowa bean fields. Of course, it is too late to replant corn. Beans can still be replanted but at the risk of much lower than normal yields, a risk that some farmers will take due to the very high prices being offered by the bean market, near all time highs currently.
ABARE, the Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics, cut its wheat production guess from 25.95 million tonnes in March to 23.68 million tonnes today, a drop of 8.8%. This was blamed on dry weather over the last month or more. Scattered, light rain is forecast in eastern Australian wheat areas the next few days, which will be very welcome but more rain will still be needed soon in both eastern and western wheat areas or further production cuts will result.
Much needed rain is forecast in the dry Argentine wheat belt the next few days with light to moderate amounts expected.
More rain will be needed here also to ensure a good wheat crop. The US midwest was mostly dry yesterday. More of the same is forecast the next two days before scattered showers move into the belt Thursday with dry weather returning starting Friday. The 6-10 day calls for wet weather in the western half of the belt with below normal rain expected in the eastern half of the belt. The southwest winter wheat belt will see unwelcome harvest delaying rain in the eastern half of the belt the next several days following up to 1.5" over the last 24 hours. By Thursday, additional amounts of up to 2" could fall. The 6-10 day calls for above normal rain in the east with below normal rain in the western part of the belt.
Deputy Agriculture Secretary Conner said the government could intervene to stop extreme tightening in corn supplies and ever higher spiraling corn prices but he wouldn't say what measures might be taken. Some think dropping the 51 cent a gallon ethanol tax credit might be one measure the government would use. Whatever might be done, it would be bearish for corn prices and likely pull bean and wheat prices lower too. Most traders don't think any government intervention is likely now but if corn prices reach $9-10 bushel or higher then government action becomes more probable. Much higher grain prices will only be seen if the weather is unfavorable over coming weeks and months, especially during corn's most critical month, July, and during August for beans.
Finally, the Iowa Farm Bureau Federation estimates 1.3 million acres of corn and 2 million acres of beans have been lost this season due to flooding. Their corn estimate is similar to the weekly Iowa state report mentioned earlier but their bean acreage guess is much higher. It will be very interesting to see what acreage numbers the USDA put out in their huge June 30 acreage report, which could move the market very sharply that day. Will the USDA adjust this report to reflect all the damage done since early in the month when the numbers were compiled? As far as near term direction is concerned, I think it will take more weather problems to push prices higher from here but I would still give the bulls the benefit of the doubt and stick with the long side for now. ---Vic Lespinasse
Midwestern Flooding is Significant Influence in Grains Today
A higher to sharply higher start is expected in all pits this am, 15-20 wheat,12-15 corn and 20 beans. Crude oil is sharply higher,the $ is lower, Dalian, China grain futures are higher and Malaysian palm oil futures gained 37 ringgit, all bullish influences for our grain market.
The biggest bullish influence by far is the wet weather, which has caused widespread flooding in large parts of Iowa and some parts of other midwestern states. This will cause replanting of beans, switching of acreage from corn to beans, and, in some cases, no planting at all due to how late it is in the season. What planting is done now will likely result in much below trend yields. All of this will lead to a lower than previously expected crop for both corn and beans. Of course, a lot still depends on weather the rest of the season with the most important month for corn July and August for beans. Good weather the rest of the season, especially during these two months, will avert further crop losses and could still produce a good sized crop, although probably not as large as needed.
The forecast this week is for mostly dry weather in the midwest until Thursday in the west and Friday in the east, when scattered rain is forecast. Amounts are not expected to be heavy but any rain later this week will still be unwelcome and delay drying of flooded fields as well as replanting efforts. In the southwest, widespread rain this week will cover most of the region, delaying harvesting of the winter wheat crop. The 6-10 day outlook calls for more wet weather, which could further delay harvest progress. The midwestern 6-10 calls for wet weather in the western corn belt but below normal rain in the east.
Welcome rain is forecast this week in the dry Argentine wheat belt. Australia had some much needed rain in parts of its wheat belt over the weekend with more light rain forecast the second half of this week. However, a government official with the main wheat growing state, New South Wales, said dry weather last month increased the area of the state that has slipped back into drought status to over 60% from 48% the previous month. Several Australian forecasters have cut their estimate of the size of the upcoming wheat crop due to the mostly dry weather pattern seen over the last month. The official Australian government wheat production forecast will be out Tuesday from ABARE, the Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics.
Argentine farmers have restarted their strike, holding beans off the market and blocking roads at least through Wednesday following the arrest of one of their leaders over the weekend. The longer this situation drags on, the more export business in beans, meal and oil is likely to be shiftedfrom Argentina to the US and/or Brazil, which is bullish for the nearbys in the bean complex.
July corn has made new all time highs the last 7 days in a row and should make it 8 in a row this morning! Look for strong prices in all pits all day. ---Vic Lespinasse
Weather May Trump Bearish Influences on Grains Today
Vic Lespinasse's Pre Opening Grain Commentary from the Floor of the Chicago Board of Trade for June 9, 2008A sharply higher start is expected this am, up roughly 15-20 in wheat and corn, 20-23 in beans. Very heavy rains in much of the midwest over the weekend, with more rain forecast this week, is behind the big overnight gains and the expected strong opening this am.
Flooding was seen in parts of the midwest and more is likely with additional rains sweeping across most of the belt the next several days. All this rain will delay bean and late corn planting while flooding means some areas will need to be replanted. Given how late it is in the season, corn replanting is unlikely - the two most likely options are to plant beans or let the land lie fallow this season and collect the insurance money. If the choice is to plant beans, the farmer will have to wait until later this week or next as the land needs time to dry out after all this heavy rain, and by that time it will be getting late to plant beans! Bottom line, some corn and bean acreage probably won't be planted this season, which is bullish prices for these crops. Midwestern flooding will also damage soft red winter wheat that hasn't been harvested yet, which is bullish the price of this crop.
In some of the wheat growing areas of Argentina, the problem is just the opposite, too dry weather. Not all the weather news is bullish this am. Very beneficial rains fell over the weekend in parts of Australia's wheat belt and more of the same is forecast the next few days. In other news, Argentine farmers ended their latest strike today, which is bearish for the nearby months in our bean, meal and oil markets.
Crude oil is lower this am and the $ a little higher, a bearish combination for all the grains.
Margins are being raised for corn starting tonight. Usually, when margins are increased, it has a negative impact on that market. However, the wet weather outweighs all the bearish news and should keep prices well supported today. The southwest winter wheat belt had scattered weekend rain and more is possible today. This crop is mostly mature and harvesting is picking up so rain is not welcome anymore, except in late developing areas, mainly in the northern part of the belt.
Remember, the USDA reports are out tomorrow am. Look for all winter wheat production of 1.813 billion bushels with hard red winter 1.038 billion, soft red winter 562 million and white winter 213 million. Expect carryovers of 241 million bushels of wheat for the 2007-08 crop year, 1.424 billion bushels of corn and 134 million beans. For the 2008-09 crop year, expect carryovers of 496 million bushels for wheat, 736 million for corn and 180 million for beans.
Bullish Influences Continue to Support Grains
Vic Lespinasse's Pre Opening Grain Commentary from the Floor of the Chicago Board of Trade for June 6Another higher start is expected in all pits this am, 4-5 wheat, 3 corn and 7-10 beans. Crude oil is sharply higher again this am while the $ is lower and Dalian, China grain futures are higher. Malaysian palm oil futures gained 72 ringgit today too so the outside markets all point higher as far as our grain markets are concerned.
The Argentine farmers strike is continuing and no resolution is in sight with the Argentine President only offering harsh words about the farmers while the Catholic church is trying to at least get the two sides talking again. Meanwhile, Argentine truckers are blocking roads, limiting the movement of food to cities. The longer the strike goes on, the more bullish it is for our bean, meal and oil markets.
Index funds will start moving long positions in wheat, corn, beans and oil out of July and into forward months starting today and continuing most of next week, which could put some spread pressure on the July.
The driest areas of Australia's wheat belt will see very beneficial rain the next 5-7 days with significant amounts forecast. China's Jilin province, the largest corn producing province in the country, has had conditions similar to the US midwest this year with way too much rain causing some flooding and the need to replant corn. Just as here, it is very late to replant so yields could be hurt.
Here in the US midwest, the Secretary of Agriculture yesterday said he is concerned about all the wet weather in the midwest and the negative impact this is having on the corn crop. The latest forecast this am calls for more rain over much of the belt the next several days, especially in the water soaked western half of the region. The 6-10 day calls for above normal rain but some forecasters see a trend to normal weather, meaning drier conditions, starting the second half of next week, which would be welcome. The southwest winter wheat belt will see more rain the next several days in most of the region, which is still welcome for late developing fields.
Export Sales Figures in Line; Higher Start Expected
Vic Lespinasse's Pre Opening Grain Commentary from the Floor of the Chicago Board of Trade for June 5, 2008A higher to sharply higher start is expected this am: 5 in wheat and crn, 15-20 in beans. Weekly export sales were in line for wheat, 140,000 tonnes old crop and 98,000 tonnes new crop; corn sales were also in line, 530,00 tonnes; beans were slow, 299,000 tonnes; meal was very good, 264,000 tonnes; oil was good, 9000 tonnes while rice was in line, 69,000 tonnes. 172,000 tonnes of new crop corn was sold along with 283,000 tonnes of beans. This makes corn sales this week total 702,000 tonnes with total bean sales 582,000 tonnes. Census Bureau April oil stocks were lower than the preliminary estimate, coming in at 2.925 billion lbs vs the preliminary number of 3.015. This should lend some support to oil this am.
Malaysian palm oil gained 88 ringgit today. Dalian, China grain futures were higher today. Crude oil is up this am but so is the $. Japan bought 86,000 tonnes of US wheat today at their weekly tender. Remember, the index funds will start moving there big long positions out of July and into September, November or December starting tomorrow and continuing most of next week. This could pressure July relative to the other months on a spread basis.
The USDA June supply/demand report and world production report will be out Tuesday am. No news regarding the situation in Argentina with farmers scheduled to strike until at least Monday. Thailand said they will sell 1.1 million tonnes of rice from government stockpiles, which should weigh on our rice market today.
More much needed rain is forecast for Australia's wheat belt the next 5-7 days, greatly improving conditions there. The southwest US winter wheat belt will see beneficial late season rains in most of the belt the next 5 days or so. The midwest will get more unwelcome, heavy rain over the next 5 days, increasing the risk of flooding, slowing planting and possibly damaging already planted crops.
Mixed Influences to Start the Week
Vic Lespinasse's Pre Opening Grain Commentary from the Floor of the CBOT for June 2, 2008A mixed start is likely this am, up roughly 5 in wheat and down around 1 in corn, 3 in beans. Outside indicators are mixed this am with Dalian, China grain futures higher but crude oil lower and the $ higher, sending confusing signals to our grain markets.
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization is holding a world food price summit Tuesday through Thursday in Rome. Expect big biofuel producers such as Brazil (ethanol from sugar cane), the US and the EU to defend the growing use of food to make fuel while other countries, especially those in the third world, will blame this practice for sharply rising food prices around the world.
No fresh news out of Argentina this am with the strike scheduled to end by tomorrow, although most traders think it will continue beyond then.
An article in Saturday's New York Times says the Commodity Futures Trading Commission will announce new policies this week to address alleged abuses in the futures markets that critics claim are behind the rapid rise in food and energy prices. They might close some loopholes, such as the use of swaps, to avoid position limits. Swaps are large positions that are put on by hedgers, who have no position limits, for customers that do have position limits, thus avoiding the limits.
Some much needed scattered rain fell over the weekend in parts of the dry Australian wheat belt and more scattered rain is forecast the next few days. Much more rain will be needed again soon in Australia or yield potential will fall.
The southwest US winter wheat belt had isolated rains of up to 1" over the weekend. More scattered rain is forecast this week but the 6-10 day calls for generally below normal rain. The midwest corn and bean belt had scattered weekend rain. The western half of the belt will see more scattered rain this week, up to 2" while the eastern half of the belt will see up to 1.5" between tomorrow and Wednesday with dry weather the next following few days. The 6-10 calls for below normal rain in the southeast with mostly above normal in the rest of the belt.
