Quarterly Stocks Figures Bullish Wheat; Bearish Corn, Beans
A mixed to lower start is likely this am, down roughly 10 or more in beans, steady corn and wheat. Crude oil is higher this am but so is the $, sending mixed signals to our grain market. Chinese markets remain closed all week for their autumn festival holiday.
The USDA quarterly stocks numbers were bullish wheat at 1.857 billion bushels but bearish corn and, especially beans at 1.624 billion and 205 million, respectively. The bean number was much higher than expected due to the USDA revising 2007 bean production higher by 91 million bushels to 2.676 billion bushels. Wheat production showed mixed results with all wheat production 2.500 billion bushels, all winter wheat 1.868 billion, hard red winter 1035 billion, soft red winter 614 million, white 219 million, spring 547 million and durum 85 million. The all wheat and spring numbers were higher than expected while most of the other numbers were about as expected.
The weekly crop rating showed corn maturity was still way behind normal at 52% vs 79% average. Bean maturity was 68% vs 81% average. Corn and bean harvesting were well behind normal, 9% vs 21% average for both.
Deliveries this am were much larger than expected, 540 meal and 4200 oil. Dreyfus put out 300 of the meal. These larger than expected deliveries could pressure the nearby spreads in these pits today.
FC Stone puts out their Oct crop production guesses tomorrow am.
Much needed rain is possible in Argentine wheat areas tonight through Friday. Beneficial rain is possible in parts of Australia's wheat belt later this week, mainly New South Wales. Lows the next couple of mornings in the midwest US could fall to freezing levels but little damage is expected as only a light freeze, if any, is likely.
Mostly favorable harvest weather is forecast for the midwest this week. The 6-10 day forecast calls for warmer temps with wet weather in the west and below normal rain in the east. Good harvest weather is forecast for the delta the next 5 days or longer. ---Vic Lespinasse
