Informa Acreage Estimates Out Today
A slightly lower start is expected this am, 1 in wheat, 1-2 corn and 5-7 beans.
There was some unwelcome rain yesterday in Iowa, up to 2" in some areas, but the rest of the midwest was dry. Scattered showers, up to 1", are forecast today through Monday in the midwest. The next chance of significant rain is Tue-Thur in the west and Wed-Th in the east with up to 1.5 forecast in the west but only up to .75" in the east. None of this rain will be welcome but it probably isn't enough to start renewed flooding in most areas. The Mississippi River is expected to crest around St Louis Sunday. So far, 23 levees have been breached and 25 more are in danger. However, judging by how the market acted yesterday and overnight, the worst of the weather is behind us and the forecast currently is benign, which is to say bearish pricewise. The southwest winter wheat belt will see continued rain the next several days, up to 1.5" with yet further rain Mon-Thur next week. All this moisture will slow winter wheat harvesting and could cause some quality problems.
The big Australian wheat producing state of New South Wales had beneficial rain yesterday in the south, up to 3/4". Lingering rain is forecast for this same area the next few days but much more widespread rain is needed to prevent further declines in Australia's wheat production prospects this season. Dry Argentine wheat areas had much needed rains the last 24 hours of up to 1". More is needed here also to boost production prospects.
Remember, Informa estimates acreage at 10:30 this am, central time. The USDA announced they will resurvey Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota, Missouri and Wisconsin next week and incorporate these acreage numbers in their big June 30 acreage report. They also said they will conduct another acreage survey in July and publish the results in the August 12 production report. These two reports could have a huge impact on the market. Look for another volatile day.
